The following are my thoughts on ALLP as posted on another board.
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Subject: Potential
Date: Tue, Jun 9, 1998 18:28 EDT
From: RUPEH
Message-id: <1998060922285900.SAA20443@ladder03.news.aol.com>
I'm rather disappointed in the performance of ALLP's stock price, progress with potential products and partnerships.
However, the potential is still there. If Oxygent reaches the market and the revenue is even close to what has been projected by many parties, a huge profit is possible with ALLP.
Try crunching the numbers with revenue in the year 2001 of $500 million. Most biotech / pharmaceutical companies go for around 4 x revenue. That would put ALLP's market cap at
$2,000,000,000. At 4 1/8 per share and 32,000,000 shares outstanding we now have a market cap of $132,000,000. To reach fair value with this level of revenue the stock price would be around 62 per share.
If Oxygent only generated $300 million in revenue per year the market cap would probably reach around $1,200,000,000 resulting in a price per share of 38.
Will Oxygent reach the market? Most likely. ALLP will submit for phase 3 trials in less than 2 months.
What is the market for Oxygent? With 7 million surgical procedures per year worldwide and a typical cost per patient of $500.00 (approximately that of plasma) the revenue could be around $3.5 billion. My estimates above assumed that only 10 to 15 % of the patients would use Oxygent (I believe that this is very conservative if not ridiculously low).
What value will the market give to ALLP when Oxygent hits the market? The norm is around 4 x revenue. Time will tell. It would not be out of the ordinary for the market to award ALLP a much higher ratio. Time will tell.
What other products will ALLP have on the market in the next few years? Liquivent, imagent? Probably. What contribution to the revenue, market cap and stock price will they provide? Probably a significant contribution.
100 in 2 years? Probably not, my bet is 4 years.
Dave
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