Idle Speculation....
I've followed the networking industry pretty closely, and I can't help but conclude that MRV is a prime takeover candidate for Ascend. The fiber optic and Gigabit Ethernet switches are two things that Ascend has no overlap with, but which are absolutely strategic. Ascend/Cascade do ATM and Frame Relay only. Seems like Ascend would position ATM/FR as the Wide/Metropolitan network solution and GigE as the "inside the campus" backbone. Bridge from GigE to ATM and you have an end-to-end multi-gigabit solution, etc.
The fiber optic expertise comes in via Dense WDM. We need DWDM for the Cascade switches into public and private carrier class networks. We want to get to OC-192 (or OC-48) using existing fiber. The DWDM hardware integrates the hybrid GigE-ATM network above, which is running at multi-gigabit speeds, with the long-haul and metro area telecomm infrastructure. Not only is this an incredible data solution, this is essential for Voice-over-IP, an application which increases return on investment for this awesome IP voice-data converged infrastructure.
Does any dispute this vision of the possible synergies between Ascend and MRV? With Ciena gone, I see no other way to construct a great DWDM-GigE-ATM solution. I suppose there are other GigE players, but who else has the products MRV does? And, no one has them without a market cap over $5 billion and bringing along a lot of other low-margin, slow-growth baggage (BAY, COMS). For Ascend, which wants to compete with Cisco, a hybrid GigE-ATM solution would be awesome.
Then, when Lucent acquires Ascend in 1999, Lucent will be in a position to rollup the voice-data industry. Cisco would have a lot of explaining to do.
Matt |
