I am out of this but one last note....you have to wonder about a sector like the internet sector....today CNET was up 12+ YHOO 8+ AMZN 5+ SEEK 3+ and so on and so on..why? because NBC validated the sector by making an investment in Cnet. What did they invest? 26 million dollars..................
dailynews.yahoo.com
and the top internet stocks tacked on about....oh I don't know, 2 billion dollars in market cap?....is anybody out there paying attention?
I called it quits today on the short AMZN position after the break of 50(a new alltime high)....in the land of the internet 2+2=14, not 4, and until reality checks in, there is no top for AMZN....It is now worth 2.5 billion dollars, more than BKS or BGP, good companies with billions in sales and profits and online presence......AMZN will not
make money this year, nor will they make money in 1999, and perhaps 2 cents in 2000...those are not my opinions, those are the analysts expectations.....AMZN faces enormous and growing competition, ads are all over TV and the radio for barnesandnoble.com but yet AMZN marches forward....AMZN has no patents, and is a reseller of a commodity item.....traditional valuation models have AMZN generously priced at anywhere from 3-15 dollars per share, yet the price is 10 times that.....analysts have been lowering their expectations in the last few days, yet the stock makes new highs...."Relevant Knowledge", the 'Nielson ratings' on the 'net, say AMZN unique hits are down 14% from April into MAY ( see "RelevantKnowledge Top 25 Web Properties and Domains for the April 1998 reporting period" in the Online Communications folder, at
boards.fool.com.
The post immediately before that is the Media Metrix Top 25 Web Site and Web Property Rankings for April 1998," at boards.fool.com .)
Yet, today AMZN makes its single biggest one day advance in the history of the stock. And there is no news.....AMZN is not a company. AMZN is not a stock. AMZN is just what you see....a four letter symbol, which is being daytraded like mad. Why? Because the daytraders can. Thats it. This is not investment. This is a pinball game. At 2.5 billion $ AMZN is worth more that the biggest U.S. booksellers with long histories and proven track records....so why not go to 3 billion, 5 billion or 10 billion????? No reason not to. We are looking at a supply demand market of a four letter symbol....today demand was high, tomorrow????? who knows.....but one thing I do know, is that valuation has nothing to do with it.
Best of luck to all of you, and whatever your AMZN positions may be, remember that in the end, the very far off end, whenever that may be, the fundamentals always come back into play....will it be at 52? 72? 102? 202? that I can't tell you....but when the music stops, the end will be just 2.......IMHO
I live to short again!.........;^) |
