Dr. Tech,
The lack of presenting is indeed yet another issue to upset people, although truly meaning nothing at this point. This is one of many issues right now, including the business week article expectations and org approval following, general institutional shorting to drag down the price, and the natural panic selling at this point. However, nobody knows what the fda will do at this time, so to blame all of this on expected bad news would be ridiculous....if so, it is interesting that SN.(smith and nephew) generally held firm today on the london exchange...172-176.5 range with a 175 close if memory serves, and I don't think this was a change for the day. Past bad looking clinical issues didn't work this way, as SN. and ATIS are strongly linked, as are their futures.
For those who aren't sure where to go right now but are considering buying, it is worth looking at the calls for later this year imo. I don't see any way ATIS will have the risk of expiration be an issue without the longs being pretty poor off(if looking at december calls) if there weren't bad news or no news by that point. Buying december 10s for instance at 1ish allow the profits with minimal risk at this point(ie 1000 shares cost almost 7000 and 10 calls cost a bit over 1000 right now, and if the news is bad, and by december we are almost 100% to know one way or the other, one would only have to lose one point off the longs to lose the same 1000, but wouldn't have to risk any further loss, while still having the upside potential). Of course, this would only be if you truly believe the company will do as hoped for and ultimately have upward stock price movement, and if a lot is already put in ATIS and is anxious, the ability to sleep factor needs to be kept in mind.
I still don't see how the fda would reinspect at all if they felt the product wasn't worth bringing out.
Another interesting point involved today's trading....the lowest volume part of the day came with the highest drop....@1pm-2pm, and the highest volume was at the end of the day, over the last 2 hours, with some price recovery, although minimal. It keeps trying to rebound, but the next morning gets hit hard again. I think when the daily volume starts to back off we should be seeing the true end of this down cycle, as long as the news comes. For that matter, it is interesting how active the december calls have become as of late, along with no drop in the price of many, such as the december 10s. To be honest btw, in case it isn't clear, I believe strongly enough right now that the risk/benefit ratio belong there to have bought some, although the majority is still held in a long position...bummer.
Any other thoughts out there?
Regards, and happy humpday all,
Marshall |
