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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 234.37+0.2%3:59 PM EST

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To: F The who wrote (5406)6/10/1998 3:54:00 PM
From: Walter High  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
Colleagues:

I missed a couple of weeks of this thread and just read 500 or so messages to catch up. It is informative sometimes to read a bunch at once.

I would like to ask the bears on this thread a question: Why do you think AMZN is going down imminently? I know all the arguments about fundamentals; I have read every post on this thread from the beginning. My question is why do you all keep thinking the demise is about to happen any day?

The fundamentals are well-known and the predictions about AMZN not making a profit for a considerable length of time are also well-known. That has not detered its rise so far; why should it suddenly kick in now? Clearly the buyers are betting on the long-term viability of internet commerce and are willing to bet that AMZN will be a leader. Everyone knows that issue won't be decided for a long time, maybe several years. In the face of that evidence, shorting seems, well, short-sighted. Every time the stock goes up, there is a rush of messages about trying to find shares to short. The stock is now at the equivalent of 110 (pre-split) and these messages have been showing up regularly at every rise since the 40s.

Seems to me that Rizzolo and Fowler are the only ones making money. According to my calculations, Fowler invested less than $7,000 and is up over $20,000 as of today. Maybe some of you have made money playing the volatility by buying and selling short-term. I would be curious if any of you can claim to be ahead on AMZN trades overall, other than the two mentioned above?

Several posts have recently reiterated the concept of trading stocks to make money. I find in reading a lot of posts at once a general attitude of: "We don't like this stock and we are going to short it on principle; I don't give a damn if I lose money doing it." Can anyone give a logical reason why you shouldn't wait until the knife begins to fall?

Walter High
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