Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 165.07

-1.0%

Nov 18 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jeff Vayda who wrote (11359)	6/10/1998 3:58:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 152472

Jeff, we've been through the Strategis numbers. They are a crock. They did a straight line extrapolation from the known 1997 numbers all the way out to 2003 and said "therefore". The fact is cdmaOne's growth rate is very fast and accelerating. cdma2000, with or without Ericsson, is going to be well underway by 2003. Analog will be in extremely fast decline in a couple of years as subscribers demand high quality calls, better battery life etc. GSM is enjoying its fastest growth over the next year or so. Then it will fade. It is almost certain that so many companies will join cdma2000 in the interests of being early to market that it will simply become the defacto standard. GSM will be overlaid as per the Newbury style. Qualcomm just needs to continue offering its IPR for cdma2000 at reasonable rates and it won't be long before the W-CDMA-VW pack cracks and one or two will come over, then watch the stampede. With Ericsson in indignity and with sullen face shuffling in at the end. Regarding the wiring versus the air interface, I don't really care which is more tricky or adaptable. cdma2000 has to be backwards compatible with cdmaOne. If that precludes GSM wiring adapting [which the Newbury trials showed is not the end of the world] then bad luck. You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. It would be amazing if GSM didn't have a harder time adapting to cdma2000. That's the breaks. Mqurice

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