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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: DaiS who wrote (9487)6/10/1998 9:12:00 PM
From: Sal Milani  Read Replies (2) of 23519
 
Dais - Your model seems reasonable although I have not tried to verify it. In some cases however, K=0; i.e., the MD will want to see the patient after every pack. As you say, the result is very dependent on the assumptions.
If you use the value I had in my post 9467 of .4, we get the following number of MUSE scripts assuming there were 280,000 Viagra scripts:

Muse scripts = 280000*(1-.7)*.5*.4 = 16,800 per week.

This is about the value of the MUSE total scripts before Viagra. This is what others on this thread have been expecting.
Sal
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