Ethernet inventor and 3Com founder Bob Metcalfe's executive conference on Internet-telephone convergence An interview
METCALFE'S LAW VS. MOORE'S LAW
Tony Perkins: So is Metcalfe's Law of Networking [when you take any "n" number of computers and connect them, you get n squared performance and value] overcoming Moore's Law?
Bob Metcalfe: Yes, one could demonstrate that progress in photonics and spread spectrum, that is, wave division and recovering useless bandwidth, is exceeding progress in silicon.
Perkins: It also seems that the sweet spot in the market is now out on the network, and not inside the desktop. Did you see the Broadcom IPO?
Metcalfe: Well, if you are asking whether the consumer would rather see his modem double in speed, rather than his processor, I think you are right. You could also say that Intel's progress is being choked by lack of bandwidth. The adage that "What Andy giveth, Bill taketh away" doesn't have the same meaning anymore. People want faster access, not more complicated desktop applications.
Perkins: So what is getting in the way of users getting more bandwidth?
Metcalfe: Well, you have the lack of competition and motivation in the telco sector. And I, as well as the rest of the computer industry, am pretty damn mad about that!
Perkins: How much more bandwidth do we need to the desktop to make you and the computer guys happy?
Metcalfe: By my estimation, we need to improve bandwidth by a factor of 20, basically the difference between one megabyte and 50 kilobytes, to solve Intel's problems. Eventually DSL or cable modems will solve this problem- but it just seems so far away.
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