Sorry Jeff, thought I had covered this.
You wrote: I have a different view. I hope that the short term earnings and outlook are sufficiently BAD that the stock gets hit next week, but that the long term outlook is unchanged. Myopia on Wall Street is often a source of great opportunity.
Paul K, how likely a scenario do you think this is? Can the short term
be bad and the longer term unaffected?
My ability to predict short term moves has not been all that good... every once in a while I get it right. You're kind of cutting it pretty fine. If I've heard is right, then the new deals will kick in August and September. Will JBL tank now, and then rebound strongly then? Could happen, but not sure I'd bet on it. I give the scenario that Jabil will drop to 32 one more time, only a 10-15% probability. OTOH, the low was probably set last Wednesday, and the ECM sector will begin rebounding with concrete info released next week in the Solectron and Jabil earnings report. I'm guessing Jabil will give pretty encouraging forward guidance for the 99 FY starting in September, probably reveal more about the recent contracts, and this will have more impact than hitting the analyst estimates of 45 cents a share for the MayQ.
IMO the current price was due to the tech sector sell-off today, and is a gift. The SOX fell over 6% today. Also I suspect the shorts are playing again. When they cover, this will provide a lot of buying support.
Paul |
