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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent?
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To: Bill Murphy who wrote (94)6/11/1998 4:34:00 AM
From: PAUL ROBERTSON  Read Replies (2) of 81137
 
Bill,
A return to 133-35 on yen is quite probable before moving on to 150.How is the consensus on gold and bonds ?The unfortunate thing is that,I think,governments and CB's are going to learn the hard way that deflation is not a thing to be skrewed with.History has it as far far less controlable than inflation.By the time this is all over with,I think AG and company will have wished they had kept inflation running in the solid three percent range.One has to wonder what they are thinking and why they act as they have.A little bit of history usually goes a long way.
An example of chart extremes right now is the Cdn$.If it were a basic stock chart and the .68 cent level were to break,I would be looking at eventual bankruptcy,keeping in mind that all currencies over the ages are headed for zero.Deflation just gets them there far more quickly than inflation.For now,my guess would be at least the .50 cent level.Price stability or zero inflation and CB selling of gold are two of the largest mistakes,I believe,that have been made over the last ten years.
When the US buck begins its crumble,then gold will fly,untill then ?The days are now more quickly approaching.
The technicals usually tell all.The 30yr yield has broken down now and 5.75-80 becomes very solid resistence.Long term cycle now shows no bottom on yield before year end.
Paul
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