Slider, You may have skipped over some of the more dire posts on this thread because you thought we were all a bunch of morons or "shorters" with agendas. Quite the contrary, most of us were very fond of this sector and heavily invested. I still have losing positions that I was holding for the rebound that I am now seriously considering closing out because I don't see any rebound for a while.
Why? Because while the upcoming OPEC meeting may provide some stability and a rebound in the price of oil, and in the price of these stocks, the observations made this morning about how long its going to take for the oversupply to work out of the system is accurate. This is not a quick fix.
So after the possible OPEC inspired bounce, what is going to propel the stock prices upward. Earnings? I don't think so. I'm getting earnings downgrades from First Call on a daily basis. We've heard of land units being stacked and falling day rates. AND, you have an industry insider who is telling you that all of the news ain't out there on the street, which means it ain't in the stock price. So after the OPEC euphoria, we have lots of bad news in the wings to look forward to into earnings season.
And we're still waiting for an anticipated correction in the overall market and Asia is an unknown.
This is not a very pretty scenario. Great sector, wrong time.
Just my two cents. Oh, and if you want to know how low it can go, look at a few five year, ten year charts on any of these companies, then you can really feel sick to your stomach. Sorry for being harsh, but I think you need a dose of reality. I honestly hope I'm wrong but I'm not inclined to bet my money on it.
Alex |
