Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 143.23

-2.9%

Nov 18 3:59 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (5797)	6/11/1998 11:05:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (4) of 10921

Jess, let me ask you a question about a previous comment you made. You wrote. (2) With a declining economy (=> a falling Nikkei and possibly increased loan default rates in the domestic loan portfolio) and a declining yen, there will be further weakening of the regional currencies (=> increasing rate of loan defaults in the foreign loan part of the loan portfolio), and both of these things will lead to further weakening of the assets side of Japanese bank balance sheets. Why do you assume further weakening of the regional (SEA) currencies? I am looking at charts on the trade balances of many of these countries and the one thing they all have in common is a sharp upward spike. Specifically Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Korea all show dramatic shifts from chronic trade deficits to large surpluses. Clearly this is a response to the recent declines in their currencies. Now I am a veteran of trading currencies and I know that in the near term speculation (short term money flows) usually dominates all other factors like trade balances. But over time the shift in these balances of trade will provide critical demand for these currencies. I guess what I am saying is that perhaps the currencies of these countries have declined sufficiently already. I recognize that Japan competes in many ways with these countries and that a severe decline in the yen may erode the gains in the balances of trade, but given the size of the currency declines already seen it would need to be a massive decline in the yen to return the pricing advantage to Japanese companies. Here's a radical thought. Might the next move for Southeast Asian currencies be up? My contrarian skin is tingling.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next