Hello Gull
Unless you are sitting opposite Nick Or Mr. Maduna as a bridge partner or are privy to their musings, I doubt, in all honesty, that you can truly say whether DeBeers has, or has not, "got anything to fear".
Are you prepared to offer this thread your reasons for making such an assertion? Unless your statement was strictly the personal opinion of an outsider, rather than the conviction and intimate knowledge of a senior DeBeers staffer?
Your quote from the BD article, as I have previously indicated, is very one sided and has the earmarks and texture of a DeBeers funded editorial.
We have all admitted, even yourself, that M-1 production would be minuscule in the scheme of things. Even in comparison to potential Leopard fissure production, the M-1 represents a minor fraction of the value of this play. For example, the $200 or $300 million +/- in M-1 diamonds represents only about 14% +/- of what was smuggled out of Angola in 1997.
I am sorry, but if you were suggesting that the Minister had the M-1 in mind and was implying that its ore should be shut in the ground for fear of disrupting markets, I have to tell you that that is a ludicrous assertion, and hardly likely what the Minister had in mind.
More realistically, what Mr. Maduna did have in mind was the shutting down of commodity production where world markets were severely depressed. This more than likely includes nickel, copper and gold production, and possibly oil. The cost of production of these commodities, most especially gold, is probably close to the current world price if not already above it.
On the other hand, as I am sure you well know, the production of gem quality diamonds is predicted to decline by approximately fifteen percent +/- over the next several years due to several mine closures in Russia, Australia, South Africa and I believe at least one other African country. Canadian production is only projected to address 6% of this loss by 2005 and 10% by 2010 when Aber and Ekati should be in full production.
Prices for quality goods of slightly less than a carrat and up, have not declined, but in fact have increased, and despite the "Asian Flue", they are projected to continue increasing due to demand and reduced supply.
The M-1 would produce an inordinate percentage of larger better quality goods and would by not means in even the most far fetched scenario, be a threat to world prices. In any regard, production of low quality (Indian) goods can only hurt Argyle, and DeBeers would probably like to see that. Prices for Argyle's production have been declining for several years, no doubt exacerbated by DeBeers and the CSO releasing larger quantities of Indian goods. I am sure they would like to expedite the closure of that mine which has been a sharp stick in their eye and source of disruption of their marketing plans for years. Flooding their (Argyle's) markets, also sends a clear message to the Russians and other African nations who may have delusions of going it alone.
Calling SUF an "overseas punter" smugly appeals to that old nationalistic card that I alluded to in an earlier post, but holds little water when that "punter" would be employing SA workers, paying SA wages and SA taxes. It was a stupid statement and you have not seen me use that term before. It has the air of arrogance and appeals to the lowest common denominator and the basest of human frailties. I trust the majority of South Africans are above all that.
I asked you, Nempela, Bozkurtd (sp?) and I believe Factfinder in a previous post, how that "screw the foreigner" message plays in the RSA? I would still invite any SA threadsters to offer their perspective?
Are we welcome with our investment and development, or are we perceived and/or painted as plunderers of SA resources and unfair competition to good old boys and home grown industry?
Regards
P.S. Thanks BozkurtD, looking forward to hearing more from CJ. |
