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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: Wayners who wrote (27459)6/11/1998 7:59:00 PM
From: FR1  Read Replies (1) of 97611
 
Personally, I don't think people invest on the past. They invest on the relatively near term future - like profits expected in 2-6 months.

CPQ is wildly unpredictable at this point and that's part of what makes this so exciting.

At least they are starting right:

1) Within hours of closure CPQ tells the press to expect break even results for Q2. This makes it so they could have a earning surprise if they want because there is so much available for accountants to work with that it would be a surprise if they could not adjust profits by a few cents over break even.

2) Tomorrow morning CPQ will explain in detail how they plan to make this merger work and answer any analyst's questions. Bean counters will be in hog heaven. Experts too. They can spin this any way they want and be right. Whatever they think will sell papers is how they will spin it.

3) It is significant that on Friday CPQ takes care of all the bean counters because on Tuesday they roll out their new line of computers. Thus, the roll out can be devoted exclusively to the roll out and not be bogged down with accounting questions. The store shelves are empty and trucks are being loaded now.

Personally, I think giant mergers usually fail when two aging dinosaurs decide to marry. We will know very shortly if this is the case here. I doubt it. Daimler and Chrysler are more in the death category. They marry, make no stunning announcements, tell the world that everybody gets to keep their job, and are neck deep in high labor costs and taxes with no way out.

Anyhow we won't have to wait. The philosophy and bean counting will be over tomorrow morning and the actual get-to-work product delivery will done Tuesday. At least they are starting off right.
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