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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: Jeff Mills who wrote (27445)6/11/1998 8:02:00 PM
From: Jack T. Pearson  Read Replies (3) of 97611
 
<<<<If you only want to read happy thoughts, skip this message.>>>>

Today's announcement may not be news to you, but I'm pissed! I thought this was the transition quarter. I would have expected Compaq to overstate losses last quarter so that they could show some progress this quarter--give us a little positive pop. The fact that they have just drastically altered their relationship with their VARs by reserving the right to go direct to customers and that they've now announced that "next" quarter is the transition quarter leads me to believe they have now recognized that they haven't been able to fix their problems, and possibly, that their assumptions about the nature of their problems were incorrect.

Also, how long does it take to dump product that is loosing 1% of its value per week while it ages in inventory? At the same time I have been hearing (for the last two weeks) that people aren't finding Compaq computers in stores because, "New models with Windows 98 are pending." I thought they had excess inventory. Have they given up selling it? Will they hold it forever? Or is there a big write-off in our future? If tomorrow's news of changes resulting from the DEC acquisition doesn't get a favorable response from the market, the only question will be how low does it go.

I am becoming suspicious that this is really about Compaq trying to prevent a major erosion of market share. Possibly Compaq packed the channels to maintain market share. Then they cut prices to clear inventory. Now they have to keep prices down AND go direct to their biggest customers to maintain market share.

Comments anyone?

Jack
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