jtechkid: re: "-this downturn is u-shaped and we areat the bottom "
I'm still not following you. A "u" shape has 3 parts: first down, then flat for a while, then up. A brief glance at the stock chart tells you we're currently in a vertically down phase. I see no flat part, yet. How do you know we're at the bottom? The only reason to be buying now is if you think the downturn will be V-shaped, without a flat consolidation phase at the bottom.
Maybe, if we reach the 12/97 lows, and hold, on heavy volume, you can make an argument that we've formed a triple bottom (now, 1/98, and 12/97). But, seeing how easily INTC, KLIC, and KLAC have slid below their 12/97 lows, I'd be surprised if AMAT holds. I may take a modest position in AMAT if it doesn't break the 12/97 lows this month.
Also, re: " now we are 2year lows". What is at 2-year lows? If you're referring to AMAT (this is the AMAT thread, that's the only context I have to go on) then what is at a 2-year low? P/S, P/E, P/B are all still far above the 1996 lows.
I've had a bad habit of buying (and selling) too early. This time around, I'm going to wait till I'm sure it's the right time to buy, reviewing my "bottom indicators", and then force myself to wait a bit longer. If I'm going to miss the bottom, I'd rather have it behind me when I buy. |
