>> After hanging on the Amazon thread for the past couple days, I noticed that many of the names are the same that were here shorting Yahoo this spring.<<
Lonely are the brave.....
Seriously , though , it should occur to those who take the time to think about it , that the very nature of the Web is really not that conducive to profit , as any new idea that is working can be so easily duplicated.
The medium is transparent , has very low barriers to entry , relatively speaking , and is user-controlled. There won't be any monopolies, no AT&T, no MSFT locking in a technology that everybody must use , as the medium keeps morphing , reinventing itself , etc.
Open your eyes! The only slim profits realized so far are the "portal" sites that sell to the aspiring E-tailers. Before too long , everybody will realize that the net is a consumer tool, what with shop-bots & all , not a business-profit tool. Then the dreams of gigantic profits will be gone.
The companies paying the big bucks to put the banner ads on won't be able to pay the fees any more , and the whole netbubble will burst.
Anybody with $100 and an html book can have a website ; any business with 20 to 30K to spend can have a slick , navigable , credit-card accepting site that does business 24 hrs a day. That's an extremely affordable entry price , and already there is a deluge of competition. Margins will be almost nil , and delivery infrastructure is presently very inadequate to handle the anticipated volumes of E-commerce.
There may be a few exceptions , but I doubt if there will be many. |
