Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (23915)	6/11/1998 11:11:00 PM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (2) of 95453

OPEC numbers and here is a good link: eia.doe.gov 1. Check the "reports - petroleum" for info on worldwide production and consumption. 2. Also go to "forecasts - midterm" -- for a good read of energy demand through year 2020. Good info on natural gas demands. A bit futuristic, but may help your spirits. :o) Some data that strikes me... * World Oil demand is around 75 MMbd (million Bar per day) * US demand is around 18.6 MMbd * If you go to inventories, US "commercial oil stocks" shows 999 MMb which is different from the Crude Stocks shown here oil-gasoline.com of 350 MMb. Maybe the "oil stocks" includes refined oil also. Anyone know? * OPEC produces 30.8 MMbd in Q1 98. * OPEC plus Mexico was 36.4 MMbd * Ven/Saudi/Mex was 15.7 MMbd * US stockpile of 350MMb is only 19 days at 18.8 MMbd I am surprised at how small a reduction 2 or 3 MMbd would be to OPEC + Mexico. And with Ven/Sau/Mex agreeing to take take the big hit themselves, that leaves lower reduction for the others. I would take a 10% production cutback to get the price up 30-40%. Also to reduce the US stockpile by 50 MMb -- that's is less than 2 days of OPEC production!!! If I were OPEC I would shut down for a week and solve all my problems. I am still skeptical that OPEC will pull it off this month, but I think that solution is there for the taking.

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