Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 143.19

-2.9%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (5801)	6/12/1998 6:09:00 AM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (2) of 10921

My gloom deepened today. I know you'll all be glad to hear that. I spent about a half hour talking with my friend Takeshi Yamada today right after he'd finished his interview (about the economic situation in Japan) for a local television station, and while the yen was crossing 144 to the dollar. We talked about the fundamentals, but more illuminating was the other things we discussed. What I have described in the last few days is the SE Asian scenario that is playing out that I believe will inexorably destroy Japan's entire banking system. He pretty much agreed with that. What's more depressing is this: I'm not sure that even Alan Greenspan could stop what's happening here, and I have repeatedly stated that Hashimoto has got to go, because he has shown himself to be a political creature tied to maintaining the status quo in banking in Japan. But that doesn't matter. There is NO ONE to replace him. Nobody. Not in the political arena, not in the economic arena. Japan doesn't have a Reuben or Greenspan. As Merton Miller pointed out in January, the people who run the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) have virtually NO economic training. They're a bunch of lawyers. Takeshi said there is NO ONE in power with the economic skills to deal with the situation, and no one who has those skills is in a position of power. At the precise moment when definite concerted action is absolutely essential, there is nobody to provide any direction whatsoever. You might feel that yesterday's slide in the DOW was an overreaction. I don't think Wall Street has reacted enough (although it might be getting around to it.) Takeshi and I both agreed 100% that what's happening now is much worse here than what happened in October. Then, there was a lot of panic selling due to some speculative currency attacks and some market pressures in response to rising interest rates to counter those attacks. What's happening now is the actual manifestation (into asset prices) of the real fundamentals of the economies here, particularly in Japan. The veneer of denial is slipping away. For what it's worth, Takeshi said he pulled his money out of Japanese banks some time ago. He's 100% in cash in an account at Citibank. And what about Taiwan, and China... jess. PS - God I'll I be glad to get out of here!

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