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Biotech / Medical : Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

IONS 74.50

+1.7%

Nov 18 3:59 PM EST

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To: Peter Singleton who wrote (2035)	6/12/1998 8:44:00 AM
From: sds	Read Replies (1) of 4676

Peter, you're probably a little too optimistic.... CMV isn't a $100 million market. Maybe worldwide, but that would be pushing it. Also, Isis isn't going to get 100% of that market. I see about $30 million potential for Isis if things go well. 2302 won't be all that succesful in its Crohn's applications. I have no doubts that it will work well in Crohn's, but this is another limited disease application. Maybe $50 million (optimistic). RA -- I don't think its going to work -- $0 million UC -- I don't think its going to matter. The drug may work, but it will have to be nearly perfect to convince patients to take it instead of corrective surgery -- $5 - 10 million Psoriasis -- This doesn't seem to be going anywhere fast. I think they'll come up with something that might work, but I think they've given up on the primary/curative therapy. $10 million. Kidney transplant -- I have no clue. X million Cancer -- I'm begining to doubt these will be a blockbuster. This is looking like an adjunct to chemotherapy. Nothing wrong with that -- you can make lots 'o' money as part of chemo cocktail. $10 million to $200 million (based on efficacy). Adding that all up, I'm no longer too impressed with Isis's portfolio. It seems as though all of these antisense drugs start off as a "potential blockbuster" and then end up as a "valuable addition" to a treatment regimen. Now, while agreements like the Merck deal are interesting, Isis will not be a blockbuster based on these kinds of transactions. I'm getting closer and closer to that exit decision. AA, MZ (and any others) -- I've talked with you two for quite a while -- what is your feeling on this one? sds

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