Tang,
What you proposed earlier is "centralized economic planning" or "national industrial policy". That is dead as a doornail. Asia and Eastern Bloc were good examples of that.
As for industry group analysis, that includes analyzing supply and demand for the securities (technical analysis), fundamental analysis of the companies, and news. Everyone knows one can have the most beautiful charts or most pristine balance sheets, bad news will knock out the legs from a stock or industry. That is not a defect with technical analysis or fundamental security analysis, that is a failure of the investor to be aware of factors, such as earnings reports, industry news, etc., that are beyond his control. Most people blame systematic approaches (whatever they may be) when they fail to take the wildcard of news events, such as currency fluctuations, government reports, earnings reports and preannouncements, etc. into account. When there is news risk, the more prudent investor will not take a position until the news has been disseminated. |
