Chrome and "Killer Apps", some thoughts.
Intel and us investors are searching for the killer app that will drive an upgrade market. Intel has often mentioned "voice" as an example of a future killer app.
I think a definition of "killer app" is an application that will be both wanted by a majority of PC users and those who don't currently own a PC.
I think you can segment this further into "Legacy Kapp's" and "Upgrade Kapp's".
Legacy Kapp's
I define this as new software that will run on and be desired by a large percentage of the 100's of millions of installed PC's. This, of course, has little value to Intel, but great for the ISV.
Upgrade Kapp's
To me this means an app that requires the latest technology to run. MSFT put's Chrome in this category. And this is the segment Intel is looking for.
However, I think that in order to achieve the volume required to be a "Killer App", it will have to run on a $1000 PC! For example, if you look at MSFT's PC spec for running Chrome, (and their time frame), I have no doubt those PC's will be what Intel describes as "Basic PC's". ($1000 machines). I think the same is true for "Voice Recognition". (And quite frankly, I don't view "VR" as a killer app. Maybe in five years, but then I think it will run on a sub-0).
Chrome could eventually succeed because it's internet related. But the growth in this segment is not driven so much by performance, as it is by price.
And there's the "chicken/egg" syndrome. How many providers will create content that won't run on the 100's of millions of legacy machines? I think most will wait till a large percentage of users can view the content. So maybe it's not a "killer app."
I think that whatever the next killer app is, it will be internet related. And I think it will run on a majority of the installed base. |
