Tom,
Add my 2 cents of appreciation for your recent posts. Helps us all to get a pro's point of view in these shaky times.
Speaking of shaky times. I've been in the market since the early 90s andI have seen all the pullbacks, dips, the rolling corrections, etc., etc., but I don't believe I've seen anything quite like we're seeing in the market now. Instead of sharp, swift corrections where people buy on dips, or corrections rolling from one sector to another followed by rebounds, we're now seeing a slow, painful, drip-by-drip pullback across all sectors of the market with no buying on the dips and no leadership to take the market in new directions.
Now, we all know that the market has been flying high, perhaps too high, in recent years, and everyone has said it can't be sustained and has called for a healthy correction. I, for one, have been hoping for a substantial pullback to more reasonable levels, looking to get in on a good buying opportunity once some of the excess has been rung out of the market. But most of us also have been hoping for a quick strike kind of a correction that gets the pain over in a hurry rather than the slow torture we now have. Given the virtual collapse of Asia and the fear that it will spread all over the world, the slow torture correction with no buying on dips introduces great uncertainty and raises fears that we may be in for a long, protracted economic slowdown resulting in a long, protracted bear market of the type last seen in the early 70s.
The collapse in commodity prices, particularly crude oil, seems to be attributable more to falling demand than to over supply. That, coupled with little to no inflation in these parts and near to outright deflation in other parts, adds fuel to the severe economic slowdown argument. The weakening earnings outlook across all sectors of the market reflects these weakening economic conditions.
Sorry to go on and on, but I do so to set the context for a question I hope you have the time and inclination to ponder. That is: (a) is there a similar period in which the market performed like it is now performing from a P&F perspective that could offer any insight to what we're going through now, and (b), what is your own personal "gut" feeling about what we're seeing today and where we might be heading over the next year or two.
Thanks again for you contributions to the thread and for any thoughts you might share on my question.
Doug |
