Hi Betty,
Thanks for the reply.
I think you may be misunderstanding me, and perhaps you missed one or more of my recent long-winded posts which explain my position on this a bit more clearly. I think our differences here are more a matter of degree than anything else.
Low cost PCs have captured the bulk of the market. Software developers target their next generation software at the bulk of the market. I contend that it will be quite some time before applications appear that will be taxing enough on a typically configured 233MHz Pentium system that people will abandon them in great numbers.
You are correct that when those applications appear, that will spell the end of this generation of computers. But it is a bit different this time around on a couple of fronts. First, this generation of computers is much faster than prior generations, and, importantly, this generation is finally fast ENOUGH to multitask all the common business applications without the annoying and frustrating slowness of prior generations. I typically have four or five applications running at the same time, and switch between them instantly. You couldn't think of doing that on even a P90.
The second thing that is different is that these powerful computers cost $1000 or a little more. That is radically different from the way things have been for the last fifteen years.
I believe that this combination of superior performance and low prices will stretch the normal transition time from this generation of systems to the next. I also believe that until the next generation of power hungry software arrives on the scene, the majority will buy near the low end, because the low end performs exceptionally well relative to the low end in past generations.
There is plenty of demand for new computers, perhaps more than ever. But most of that demand is in the low end. Of course, time and progress march on, and today's high end is tomorrow's low end. The low end at Christmas time was a P166; now it's a P233. In a few more months, it will certainly be a P-II 233.
The point of all of this, of course, is to try to figure out how this might affect Rambus. In the current P233MMX configuration shipping today, there is $25 worth of DRAM (32MB). This compares to about $350 worth of DRAM (16MB)in the typical configuration two years ago and about $400 worth of DRAM (8MB) in the typical configuration about two and a half years ago. What kind of premium are people going to be willing to pay for a high performance, DRDRAM based system? Unless and until they need that performance, I don't think they'll pay any significant premium. And with the bar trending lower for system prices at the low end, I see the picture getting even gloomier.
I can now get a P-II/333 w/64MB SDRAM for $1225. If a DRDRAM based system is going to have to compete with that, what's the royalty going to be? Probably under a dollar. Presuming DRAM prices don't continue to trend down. Of course, they are sure to level off. Right?
Hope I didn't put you to sleep.
Tom |
