INDEX UPDATE
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Many may feel that the key issue was the way the market rebounded; however feel that the key issue was that we broke an important support line 8750 intraday.
NEGATIVE TECHNICAL ISSUES TODAY:
1) DOW breaking 8750 support intraday, bad signal and would have been worse if we had closed there; but should not discount the fact that we hit it only intraday.
2) NAZ and many NAZ indexes setting lower lows intraday and at the close.
3) NEW HIGH/NEW LOW getting worse.
4) Even though we ended up positive, except for the NAZ, the DOWN VOLUME was greater than the UP VOLUME today. Therefore we can conclude that the rebound today was on lighter volume. This is a key, along with the new high/lo, of the weakness of todays rebound.
As indicated in my previous update, the short-term technicals will be in the mid to lower-midrange, meaning that the market will be more susceptible to news, whether good or bad, and that there is still plenty of downside room.
Be cautious with going long at this moment. I suspect that there is a reasonable chance that we could retest todays lows or lower before continuing up and before expiration. If that would happen it would be forming a mini-shortterm TECHNICAL DELAYED DIP (MINI DOUBLE BOTTOM).
With the DOW breaking 8750 and many index setting lower lows, I have shifted the trading range from 8450-9300, which held for about 3 months to 8595-9100/9175(not sure of the top support of this new range yet). |
