Dr.Tech--lets discuss those #'s.
>BEL has said they will have approx. 7 million
lines avaiable Y/E 1999. WSTL will receive approx. $275 dollars per CPE line. Of
course, 7 million is the available lines. However,I think you must consider that this is
the most populated area in the USA and BEL ISDN REWARDS will have huge
response since BEL will be give ISDN customers free CPE to switch to ADSL
service. Does anybody know how many ISDN lines BEL has service for.<
OK, 7 million is a lot of available lines. Now you have to figure out the take rate. The figures I have heard for cable modem take rates are 1% in areas with cable modems. Lets not forget cable modem rates are far cheaper than ADSL rates (about $40 vs ~$70). So where both overlap, the telco loses. If we figure 1% take rate on 7 million lines, that is 70,000. 70,000 x $275 = $19,250,000. Not worth anywhere near WSTLs current market cap. However, we must adjust the take rate higher for businesses that use ISDN. BEL has approximately 400,000 ISDN lines deployed. However, many of those lines cannot get ADSL because they are over loop distance limitations. Furthermore, many of those lines are Centrex ISDN lines, where the business will not switch to ADSL and POTS service. So to be conservative, I will say 20,000 ISDN customers switch. 20,000 x $275 = $5,500,000. Add that to $19,250,000 and that = $24,750,000. I know I am using very imprecise calculations with respect to take rates, but lets face it. What consumer is going to pay ~70 for a high speed Internet line. Just ask your neighbors if they would pay that much to get a sense of what I am talking about.
Pretty poor numbers my friend.
Our best bet is a buyout...
Hal |
