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Technology Stocks : 3DFX
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To: Frank Sheridan who wrote (3955)6/12/1998 9:33:00 PM
From: Pierre-X  Read Replies (3) of 16960
 
Re: 25% penetration

Lets work some back-of-envelope #s for a 25% scenario -- which I think you would all agree is a BEST CASE scenario.

As of June, the installed base of Voodoo was roughly 3.5M which puts penetration at roughly 9%. To achieve 25% by year end means another 6.4M Voodoos have to get sold by then assuming no overlap.

Assuming ASP $30 yields a Voodoo top line of $64M per quarter.

Using last quarter's 18% pretax net margin yields pretax profit of $11.5M.

15M shares diluted results in $0.76 per share pretax, compared to $0.62 per share pretax in Q1 -- roughly 23% growth quarter over quarter, with no growth beyond that.

What this quickie number crunch makes clear is that until V3, Banshee has to carry the company, because V2 cannot.

God bless,
PX

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