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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 156.06+0.6%12:59 PM EST
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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (5826)6/12/1998 10:11:00 PM
From: Jess Beltz  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Ramsey, let me (very briefly) respond:

(1) With respect to Japan, no more aid packages to jump start the economy have any meaning. The problems with the banking sector have to be addressed, NOW, PERIOD. Until that problem is resolved, there will be no end to the threat of a real depression of immense proportions, as all liquidity for business dries up.

(2) With respect to China: two points:

(a) If Japan goes, it won't matter what China does, they will devalue the Yuan but that won't matter either, the whole region will go under and it will take years to dig it out.

(b) As far as China's economic road map is concerned, I think they have a LOT of pain in store. The number one priority is the dismantling of the inefficient (and debt ridden => insolvent) state owned enterprises, and that reform will mean massive unemployment - on a scale unimaginable in the US. There will be a lot of social pressure from that that will have to be "managed" - as only the PRC can ;^). Now add to that a scenario involving the kind of economic meltdown that the region is staring in the face right now. I personally don't see a whole lot of flourishing going on ANYWHERE in this part of the world.

jess.
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