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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (15873)	6/13/1998 11:21:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) of 18056

MMV, if you followed the WFR thread, the recent decline was not really a surprise. I kept saying it will go to 13 with a possible spike to 10. I also kept saying (and still am) that it has a solid chance of being a $100 stock by the end of 2000. In-Stat sees a growth of 17% in chips sales in 1999 vs 1998 and 24% in 2000 vs 1999 (actual numbers and forecasts: 1995 $144 Bill. 1996 $132 Bill 1997 $137 Bill Forecasts: 1998 $137 Bill 1999 $161 Bill 2000 $199 Bill 2001 $262 Bill (Source: Semiconductor International, June 98 Issue page 17) In my opinion, it will be the visibility of twice the Chip volume in 2001 that will drive WFR to a PE of 25 on a forecasted profit of about $4 share in 2001 which will drive the stock during 2000. We are talking about almost twice chip sales in 2001 vs 2000 which due to lower prices will means more than twice Si real estate sold. I think that while the stock could still drop to $8 or so between here and early November (probably a double bottom with the first bottom in the next two weeks and the second one late October/early November), it is becoming a buying scream and if nothing else a "value play". Zeev

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