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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 96.90

+0.9%

Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: Ahda who wrote (13079)	6/14/1998 12:23:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) of 116762

I prefer that my gold position loses. It is a hedge in the portfolio I run. My preference is for a stock market rising 15% for several years and then declining 5%. I prefer to invest where the risk is in the various companies, not in the macro economic environment. When the stock market rises 30$ per annum for years, you know trouble is lurking. Excesses are always punished. ALWAYS. There are many potential exogenous shocks that can knock the stuffing out of the stock market and cause all those long termers to flee in fear. I also prefer the FED to target 0% inflation at any price. Greenspan and others on the board have said over the years that that is the most important function of the Central Bank and when they pursue such an objective, they induce the best economic environment possible. They've just forgotten this resolve and the great benefit the country has received from it. The combination of that, reduced taxes, and reduced government expenditures has created the justification of a dynamic stock market. I am entrusted with OPM and have to diverge from those great expectations and remain in cash. There is never a good reason to have to make money. I see enough elements of trouble developing that my conviction level that we've seen the top is rising. It is certainly possible to go up to Abby Cohen's top, but then you risk a market crash. I'll leave those gains for the nimble who can realize them. The worldwide machinery is too sophisticated to get out quick even if you're on the floor. The news of trouble is released after NY closes. The market gaps out on the downside 2000 points and then what do you do?

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