Yogi,
>If we are playing for keeps, I pour my money into a IBM-QNTM-MAX
>against the world scenario.
>If IBM is a gorilla in heat, he attacks his most powerful rival, SEG.
Close, but I don't see quite the same details......
1. The main game is IBM vs SEG, IBM on offense, SEG on defense
2. At the high end IBM attacks directly, even through systems rival EMC
3. Mobile.....they already won
4. Desktop....via WDC proxy (IBM heads)......MAX is open issue.
QNTM is holding fast in its traditional markets, avoiding direct exposure to the brutal squeeze between WDC and Maxtor. WDC has money, lacks product. Maxtor has product, lacks money. IBM will eventually fix WDC product problem, don't see any money on the immediate horizon for Maxtor.
If Seagate could supply Maxtor with heads, they should buy Maxtor...but they can't even supply themselves.
Winners.......IBM, TDK/SAE, HTCH, HMTT (maybe)
Survivors....QNTM, WDC (could become IBM division), MAXTOR (maybe), INVX
Losers.......SEG
Toast........RDRT, APM, KMAG
Impure, idle, weekend speculation :o)
Tom |
