Ligand (LGND) Breakout! Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout!

LGND 203.64

+2.3%

12:39 PM EST

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (22198)	6/14/1998 7:02:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) of 32384

Rick, I think that "disdain" is a bit strong for my comments on your comments (although such a term seems to come close to your opinion of LGND senior management). Many posters on this board have in fact indicated that they trade LGND (buy at $11-$12 and sell at $14-$16) a strategy that you, and many others have pointed out. I have recommended LGND as a long term play based on their underlying technology and huge pipeline. I did expect LGND's oscillating pattern to end sooner than it has, and those who played that pattern as described above have done very well (and made it more difficult to break the pattern). I think that LGND has remained in that pattern longer than I expected in part because of the Biotech sector's under-performance and poor clinicals. I thought that last year would be a banner year for the sector because of the many products in advanced clinicals and expected the success of the sector to reward LGND, because of their excellent progress and results in the clinical area. Instead, Biotechs came up with failure after failure in the Phase III or FDA review stage, so the "early" rewards for excellent Phase II data or anticipated NDA filings have disappeared. The continued failings this year seems to have pushed the "reward" phase out even further, so even though LGND has filed an NDA for topical Panretin and received a unanimous postive rec for ONTAK, the street now views the glass as "half empty" (drug will be approved and technology will be validated, but the market size is too small and "off label" use remains to be seen). I expect LGND to continue moving forward on many fronts (headline grabbers will be synergies between rexinoids and SERMs for diabetes and breast cancer treatment and prevention, as well as the scientific breakthrough of the polypeptide hormone mimics (G-CSF is first).

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