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first, dataquest and SIA have been dead wrong in the past and basicly their only good at reporting the facts in past events. remember, these groups had positive growth figures for semi's at the beginning of the year where any moron knew that was a joke. second, barrons has three good points on the semi's this weekend. in summary, one is valuation-they metion klic trading relatively to their book, 2 morgan stanley also believes their will be massive consolitation in the chip makers sometime this year which will be a domino effect. they top tier companies intc, ibm,txn buying second tier companies like lsi vlsi. people should take a look at IDTI-ITS CHEAP , INSIDER BUYING, and their winchip will be a homerun. third, Marty whitman, who runs 2billion value fund is buying heavily into japanes stocks and semi equip stocks. HE SAYS"THE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES ARE SO FANTASTIC , ITS SORT OF LIKE 1974." HE HAS SOME good points about japan. remember, the S&L DEBACLE CREATED THE best opportunity for strong ffinacial banks. my point is don't let the media scare you short term because their is problem out there but they are paid to create strories. . i'll never forget the first stock i ever purchased was CITICORP BACK IN college around 10 dollers in the belief that the government would not let them fail. Remember, latin america was in far worst shape then compared to asia today. well, i sold at 11 because i read MICHAEL MURPHY OVERPRICED STOCK LETTER and said short citicorp because the company was going to zero. my point is do not let short term media events and wall street scare you into that we are in a free fall. the semi group trades in a significant discount to the S&P IN REGARDS to intrinsic breakup or book value. technology is not going to end but in reality it is just the beginning. what asia cannot produce will only cause a short term hiccup that other regions of the world will make up its demand. also, for those companies-asia-who cannot produce or spend on new technology will only be taken over by stron u.s companies that are loaded with cash not because of offering(like internet companies) but because they have made a fortune in the last decade. i sleep at night because klac has 800 million in cash, no debt, and a monoplot in yield managent that will be slowed because of asia but will only increase their dominant postion as they have the money to spend on new technology. morgan, has stated that he wants amat to be a 10 billion doller revenue company by the year 2000. i would not bet against him i believe in the year 2000 amat will do 10 billion in sales. |
