Here's three EWave counts which I am currently following ... I'll do them one at a time with a brief explanation of what I think they mean to traders in the short term. This first one is my Preferred Count at the Daily Level ... it projects the next 5 months of the market, but the short term shows us dropping to the Cash SPX area of 1050.00 ... perhaps even piercing it ... by the end of June ... before rocketing a LOT higher. Before dropping to the 1050.00 Cash SPX area, we should visit 1110 Cash SPX this week. Here's the chart: skansearch.com
The second chart is my Alternate Count. In my opinion, it is marginally less likely than the Preferred. I define my Preferred and Alternate Counts as "most likely" and "next most likely" ... not as bullish or bearish (although they often do show that sort of divergence). Right now, the Alternate Count and the Preferred Count mimic one another until late Tuesday or early Wednesday, when divergence sends the Alternate much lower than the Preferred. Much lower. In my opinion, the Alternate Count will ultimately pierce the critical resistance of 1100 Cash SPX. At which point an excited bearish community will announce the end of the world as we know it ... and of course that is the point at which the market heads for all-time new highs in a sustained upward move. Here's the chart: skansearch.com
The third chart is way down my list of "most likely" scenarios, but it is one which has fooled a lot of my Bullish EWave friends. There are serious structural problems with this count, but those problems are hidden way in the past, and many EWavers with a bullish bent have decided to overlook them. The chart I'm showing here is the weekly bars (not daily bars like the previous two). Of course, this chart is not really bullish, since it targets 850 Cash SPX in April, 1999. But near-term it moves straight up from here until early August, topping out somewhere near 1200 Cash SPX. The real problem with the chart is back in October/November of 1997 ... if you analyzed the lower degrees at that time (which I did), the wave "1" and "2" of "V" of (3) fails miserably. A classic EWave phenomenon. At this level ... it looks great. Break it down to all the lower levels, and ... it breaks down. Which is why I start my analysis after the close every day and move from the 2-min to the 6-min, 18-min, 50-min, 2.5-hr, daily bars .... etc. The chart which follows remains a count which a lot of people "believe" in ... I myself do not reject it completely ... but it is not a count I would place a bet on. My site is at skansearch.com and here's the last chart: skansearch.com |
