Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.34

+1.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (20331)	6/14/1998 3:07:00 PM
From: Fortinwit	Read Replies (1) of 70976

He sees 1998 at $1.24 and 1999 at $1.00 eps down from $1.85. Yes, I believe he may well be the first analyst to go one record that 1999 will be worse than 1998 for AMAT. Sure would like to hear his reasoning behind that idea. JW: What we've seen so far is the consequence of the effects of massive oversupply in the semi world. I believe that Deahna is now looking at the other shoe falling, i.e. demand. Remove demand for chips (Asian recession, or worse) from the oversupply we're seeing (now predicted to run into Mid-99) and $1 for 99 isn't out of order. On another note, it seems to me that far, far too many people just went bullish on this stock (and other semi-equips) because of sudden perceived 'value' due to the price drop. To paraphrase the kid, the only economic factor that has changed for the better is that the price has gone from $39 to $28. And as JJCramer would say, just because the price has dropped a lot, doesn't mean it cannot fall further (read the DDs, the oils, and COMS threads). I'll be looking to short the weak sisters on any bounces... F.

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