Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.34

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Jan 23 9:30 AM EST

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To: Hank Stamper who wrote (20346)	6/14/1998 6:47:00 PM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Re: "From what I experienced and saw in others that day, I think we'd be naive to think the 401K (RRSP--in Canada, my country) flow wouldn't reverse. I am certain it would and that it's withdrawal from the market would fuel a bear market. It's not the source of the money, it's the psychology and the Crowd has not changed." Well said. This is now a confidence game and IMO the higher valuations go, the more confidence/faith it takes for them to remain at these heights. We've had a "goldilocks" economy for quite some time now. I can't see it staying "not too hot" and "not too cold" forever... It never has before. And, I just cannot believe the crowd has changed or that they ever will change. Look at Japan, the confidence is gone and the money is following it right out of their market. Re: "the baby boomer argument". The assumption is that baby boomers will pay any price to own stocks, i.e. that they're just stupid gamblers, I guess. I find that very hard to believe. Baby boomers can read and most people have some sense of what fair valuation is. I know MileHigh has read "The Great Boom Ahead"... I've only read a small part of it... still, but it seems their assumptions were based on the fact that boomers would be spending money (being good consumers) which would in turn boost corporate profits, and subsequently stock prices. Okay, these things have happened. Only problem is the market has been going up ~ 3 times the rate of earnings. How long can that continue?? It seems to me that kind of situation has not been sustained in the past. Gottfried, Good articles...thanks! Teri

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