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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: SE who wrote (19861)6/14/1998 9:12:00 PM
From: RWS  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Hi Scott

On the Game thread you asked if my count agrees with David's EW outlook. I'm posting to you here because I think the game thread was supposed to be for the game only and this thread was for discussion.

I'm skeptical right now about any big 3rd wave up move. I think we'll stay in a trading range a while longer until some more fluff is wrung out of the market. We've had some pretty negative ticks but no panic selling to mark a bottom IMO. Volume is just starting to pick up and should increase on the next downwave. I don't think we'll get a crash to 1100 because Clinton, Greenspan, and Rubin don't think it's good for the economy. On the other hand there are problems with deflation fears, Asia, Russia, earnings disappointments, wage pressures, overvaluation, etc. that have begun to inject some uncertainty in the market that makes any runup scary and therefore a good short for now.

I think this is validated by the EW count that says this is a sideways series of five (ABCDE) sets of three waves. The count I like best for now is the preferred count on Temple Williams site. That puts us in a B wave up starting Friday which is corrective and may go a little higher, then C wave down, which should end this primary wave correction prior to heading to new highs. (Don't forget B and C will subdivide into up/down waves.)

Given the technical weakness in the market new highs may not be so robust.

What is your interpretation of EW at this point? I would be very interested in your ideas.

RWS
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