Any thoughts you have on it's longterm value would be greatly appreciated.
For what it's worth here's my 2 cents:
I'm bearish on Intel in the short term (this Q and the next 2), but
as far as companies go, Intel is a real titan, and it will prosper in
the long term. More than a year of poor yields has not killed a far
weaker AMD, so Intel's current troubles, small by relative comparison, are not likely to kill Intel. Why do I think it will take so "long" for Intel to come back? Because changing the course of a supertanker takes time - there's too much momentum involved. The cpu industry is moving, for the most part, out of "tornado alley" and unto "mainstreet" (read the book "Inside the Tornado"). There's plenty of profit to be made on mainstreet, but the means for obtaining it are the opposite of what worked best in tornado alley. Companies tend to promote the individuals who bring them the most success. So the leaders of many successful high tech companies, like Microsoft, Oracle, Intel etc.. are individuals who were well suited to the tactics of tornado alley. Unfortunately these tactics do not work well on mainstreet. It is very hard to change the instincts and attitudes of indivuduals who are used to winning with the instincts and attitudes they already possess. |
