Lisa, re:did the candles predict the sharp move up Friday
Yes and no. As you know, I sometimes use candlesticks in an unorthodox way, looking at intraday activity with 10min intervals. Early in the week the market was in a tight channel, so I shifted to 1min intervals to catch more moderate moves. Because Thursday's action was directional, I shifted back to 10min intervals for Friday (and included 5min intervals just to be safe). Arguably, this is a sketchy way of doing things. But, what the heck...
Using 10min intervals, SPX chart showed a nice Hammer (bullish reversal, requiring confirmation) at 1:10et; this marked the end of the downward trend and the beginning of sideward action that persisted 'til after 2:30et. At 2:50et, SPX chart showed Bullish Engulfing which punctuated the strong upward trend which extended to market close.
Using 5min intervals, SPX and OEX showed bullish reversal at 1:10 with Morning Stars for each chart. As it turns out, this formation occurred at the day's low for both indices.
Although 5min intervals appear to be very accurate for Friday's action, I am less confident since historical consistency has been less impressive based on my observation. Having said this, my willingness to take profits at 1:10 6/12 has paid off; yet, an unwillingness to establish a long position has not. You get the picture: risk opportunity cost, but not potential loss when tweaking an approach.
As you can see, it's an interesting predicament and I'll probably rely heavily on other indicators to confirm any potential market movement. This is not to say that the candle interpretation has not been accurate -- it has. But, experimentation and capital do not mix well in my book;) |
