Bilow, your posts carry a little more weight than some
bears (I don't know why, maybe cause I'm partial to
electrical engineering opinions). Your prognostications are decidedly bearish on just about everything. You say the
PC industry is finished in 99 and workstations in 01. I
think that is a completely ignorant, if not asinine prediction
(no offense), but that's just my opinion.
As a retired engineer, you are now officially
disconnected as to what's happening in the trenches.
And, since you do not work for a PC company, dealing
with marketing and analyzing market trends and demands
on a real time basis, you are further disconnected.
I too believe that basic PC functionality costs will
hit magically low numbers but stabilize in the $300-$500
range within the next few years. I just think you are
way ahead of yourself and your timing is off on your
predictions. Just because someone decides to hit that
price doesn't mean the device will be suitable for
market acceptance. Furthermore, you suggest this is
the death knell for the PC business. On that I couldn't
disagree more.
At best, over the next few years, these types of systems
will open up new markets in very poor countries including
the underpriviliged segment of our society.
Anyway, we have not seen this $299 box yet. A black
and white monitor sounds really appealing. Why not just
use your TV (internet terminals have been at $99 for over
two years) I'm sure the rest of the components are high
quality as well.
If you want to use really really cheap stuff, you
should be able to get price points even lower. These
are not traditional mainstream desktop PC's however.
Circumventing the real cost issues by using a B&W
monitor? That's really scraping the bottom of the
barrell.
You pointed out that a chassis/PS only cost $22.
I pointed out the fact that when you add up all of
the components, you still hit $800. That was the crux
of the original debate.
I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong. Time will tell
on this one but I'm betting that there will continue to
be a strong and profitable market at the high end and Dell
will be the leader.
MEATHEAD |
