This is actually on topic to the market. Something I came across from the Old Farmer's Almanac re Summer 1998 weather. I thought it was interesting because this forecast is virtually the same as one given by meteorologist who was well versed in El Nino. He said that a "biggie" El Nino like we just had is followed by a hot dry Summer. This was in an Alan Abelson column in Barrons. Some of you may remember that column.
rainorshine.com
Region 11: Central Great Plains (includes Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas)
Annual Weather Summary
November 1997 - October 1998
Temperatures from November through March will vary quite a bit through the region. Western and central areas will be well above normal in November but well below normal thereafter, with temperatures about 2 degrees below average overall. The east will be near normal in November and December but warmer than normal thereafter. Precipitation and snowfall will be near normal, although the central area will have more than usual. Heavy snow is most likely in mid- and late January and late February in the west, and in late November and mid- to late February in the east.
April and May will be milder than usual, with below-normal rainfall, especially in the southwest. Temperatures will be about 3 degrees above normal during each month.
Although June will be cooler than normal, July and especially August will be quite hot. Rainfall will be below normal all three months in most of the region. The possibility of a drought is rather high, with a significant chance of low corn and soybean yields. Hottest periods will be in mid- and late July, and in the first week of and mid- to late August. The greatest chances for significant rains are in late July and mid-August.
Temperatures in September and October will be about 4 degrees above average. Although rainfall will remain below normal, soaking rains will occur in late September and early October.
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Ah yes, the point, which you can probably deduce: low corn and soybean yields = higher food prices = higher CPI numbers = inflation = higher interest rates. I didn't check the other regions' weather, but can presume that excessive dry weather will affect other crops as well. Not sure how well wheat grows in hot dry weather.
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