Michelle,
Thank you for your balanced view. I think that you are wise to reserve your opinion as to whether "standards initiatives" will fail as they have in the past. The three points you made about "1) the internet, 2) Std mfg platforms(Sap,Psft,Orcl,Baan), 3)Trend towards organization along vertical mkts (high-tech, Pharm, etc." suggest more than a "CHANCE" at coming up with some useful standards for internet commerce. Whether or not the RosettaNet partnership will produce an Internet Supply Chain that competes with the SCM industry remains to be seen, but the makeup of the RosettaNet Managing Board is formidable. It is clearly in the interest of every one of these partners to grow the supply chain to the greatest breadth possible to reap its maximum value. These corporations are looking at more than the few hundred billion by the year 2002 as mentioned in the recent Business Week SCM article.
Without new architecture, ECOM standards, how can SCM really reach its potential with companies like Manu and Itwo and some outside partnering writing custom applications and closing a hundred or so contracts a qtr between them. I don't see the larger software companies buying these companies to be in the same slow boat albeit they are the best boats for now. Its the players at RNet in the form of a coalition, syndicate, partnership, whatever, which will move the supply chain evolution into quick-time. I'm afraid that our SCM companies are the prospectors but that it will take a much broader cooperative pooling of resources to truly develop the supply chain motherlode.
My investment in Manu has been in anticipation of long term growth. The recent market correction or re-estimation has given me cause to reconsider the basis of analysts estimations of the SCM market over the next several years. I believe the fundamental demand for the technology may be underestimated because it has been factored on existing models and those models do not consider competing technology. IF these SCM stocks dive on news of possible competition from SAP and Microsoft, I can only imagine how the market will react if the new highway goes around them! I'm just trying to focus on the technological horizon. Thanks for your help it is much appreciated.
P.S. I didn't notice that Dell was a RNet partner. Maybe Compaq's partnership interest is related to Digital and networking?
Regards,
Willie C. |
