Shibumi,
It appears that your analysis matches up with mine: Rambus will win a large portion of this market, due to their far superior and necessary technology, but the dollar value of that market is probably not going to be what was projected a few months back.
I did not understand your table, but your text is quite clear and restates my position perhaps better than I have been able to (judging from feedback on here).
I would also add that SIA has tended to be optimistic in their estimates; as I'm sure you know, they recently drastically reduced their estimates for growth of the entire semi industry.
My analysis is my own personal analysis, not relying on analyst predictions. Shibumi, I, too, would like to hear from others on what is wrong with what you and I have put forth. (I, particularly, am looking for reasoned analysis; not opinions, wild guesses about quarterly earnings, or technology lessons on the different types of memory.)
I am always open to being convinced by a good, reasoned argument.
Tom |
