I guess there was some ambiguity in what I wrote.
What I meant was that I devoutly believe that sooner or later there will be a crash and the start of a long bear market.
Yes, you are correct, I wouldn't say that the Marketgauge indicators confirm that any bear market is udner way. The six-month indicators, as I recall, are pretty heavily bearish, though.
Actually what I went on to say was that I would not be surprised to see the market recover before the end of the day, since mutual funds do have a little cash left to commit, and since keeping low cash levels has been the right thing to do for the last ten years and more.
But there is always the chance that fund managers could panic before the public in general begins to pull money out.
Since some of the marketgauge indicators are determined by what the market has already done, the preponderance of bearish indicators could increase rapidly during a two-week decline.
My own positions are already very heavily bearish. Calling a confirmation of a bear market for me will be like saying, "Well, there's all that mist, that must be Niagara Falls ahead"--a matter of some interest, but not the time to start building your barrel. |
