I agree. The next time it gets above 16 there will be more selling as
people rotate money. Until there is a sustained move up in technology
or until there becomes a general acknowledgement that the Y2K issue
goes well beyond the year 2000 and that companies like ISLI can
leverage their Y2K business into other business with their non Y2K
offerings, this stock and others like it will remain depressed. If
you look at large cap issues that are showing staying power, like IBM,
and look at where their growth is, you will see that services is a
very big part of the revenue/growth strategy. This is what ISLI does
best leveraging their tools as a service package. But until then, you
will see negative comments, like in this week's Barrons where some
dope said there will be a surplus of programmers, especially COBOL
programmers, after the year 2000 arrives. COBOL doesnt disappear in
the year 2000 and programming skills, especially those involving
legacy applications are scarce now but will be worse in the year 2000.
The late 60s was one of the largest hiring periods in the programming
business and these people will be retiring in the next few years. So
there will not be a surplus but a deficit with regards to these skills
and the institutional knowledge they represent. And if they want to
work what do you do? You retire, take that package and its benefits,
and go to work for a company like ISLI, either full time or part time
leveraging your investments, your retirement, and keeping your cash
flow. So to keep the skills the company has to hire a services
related firm who will provide it. Even IBM, who released tens of
thousands of people or who lost people they did not want to lose, had
to hire back thousands of the same people as consultants to keep the
business on track. Anyway, lets keep the faith but also realize that
there are going to be periods of stagnation where truth and justice is
replaced by fear and loathing. |
