ADVR:THE NEW COMPANY...WITH A NEW LIFE...AND A NEW MISSION Message Board

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Microcap & Penny Stocks : ADVR:THE NEW COMPANY...WITH A NEW LIFE...AND A NEW MISSION

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To: jmt who wrote (427)	6/15/1998 12:56:00 PM
From: Kingfisher	Read Replies (3) of 4891

jmt....IMHO your reality check is involving too many aspects which may only have to be considered by company managers not necessarily pseudo intellectual penny stock investors. After all, predictions can border on the absurd like basing the direction of the Stock Market in a given year on the league [NFL, AFL] of the team that wins the Super Bowl. Predictive mathematical models can be simple [i.e. composed of only one or two parameters] or involved [i.e., having many degrees of freedom]. Many of these later models use abstract mathematics [e.g., algebra, calculus], can be based on complex principles and may incorporate assumptions which can be flawed or not totally thought out. It would seem best that if one is attempting to make a prediction, the number of model parameters used should be kept to a minimum. Another point about modeling/prediction is that models can be fed data that are not obtained from accurate absolute measures. And to top that, input data may even be the output data from another model. Thus, if the input data for the model are flawed in any way, the output data will be erroneous. In other words, GARBAGE IN IS GARBAGE OUT. The more parameters contained in a model the greater the chances for GARBAGE IN.

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