>>Shibumi, why are you so surprised at how far the DRAM market had shrunk "given the latest 1998 numbers."? <<
I obviously lack your ability to look forward effectively. During the latter portion of 1997, and the first few quarters of this year, I did not foresee that the forecast for DRAM revenues for 1998 would be pushed out until the year 2000. The SIA has historically been somewhat optimistic; so I might have expected a drop of 20% -- but a drop of more than 40% with the year only halfway over was a bit more than I expected. Given that the SIA kept the growth rates almost the same given the 1998 numbers, and that the SIA can be a bit optimistic, I was also concerned about the future given that in the year 2001 the SIA is forecasting that the DRAM market will be a little more than half what H&Q forecast in June of 1997.
Over the past few months, I've seen some specific cases of wonderful quantitative analysis done by folks on this thread. I don't have the data to do this one myself, but here's a question for all those with much greater insight and predictive ability than I have: given past boom and bust cycles in the DRAM market, what is the current estimate for when the DRAM market will hit the H&Q forecast (June, 1997) of $62M? If someone calculates this, here's the bonus question: assuming that this delay, coupled with short-term competitive pressures, causes margin compression, then what do you foresee the Rambus royalty being in the year that the DRAM market does hit $62M.
I apologize for being dense and having not seen this much, much earlier. While I love the written word, I find that nothing gets me to clarity like good quantitative fundamental analysis. |
