Eric,
You raise some valid points.
1.) Is this a scam?? Although in the stock market all things are possible, I have endeavored to become as familiar with Bill Carraway and Bo O'Brien as an investor possibly can. Everytime I have had a technical question, they have provided a technical answer, usually lab results or other documentation. The Flour-Daniel lab report reflected that GOE #2 Diesel met or exceeded standards for #2 Diesel, especially in Cetane levels, which are fantastic. (49-59, compared to spec which is 38-49)
2.) Bill Carraway has always been forthright when I have asked him the tough questions regarding any outstanding law suits. As you may be aware, one of these lawsuits was dismissed in GRNO's favor. That fact has continued to build my belief in the company's credibility.
3.) I have consistently told Bill that I recognize GRNO's claims to be extremely positive. Enough so, that they engender a "pie in the sky" skepticism. It took me several months of studying the material as well various conversations with Marty Huppert, my chemical engineer associate, for me to believe that the process was indeed plausible.
4.) GRNO states that they have had the Model #200 processor up and functional in a R&D mode producing 120 gal/hr. (Not enough process heat, hence the use of a Thermal Oxidizer "TFO") They have also stated that the unit in Idaho was producing upwards of 520 gal/hr for the 3 months that it was operational before having fuel flow problems with the Thermal Oxidizer. (This unit was sold to the Idaho firm at a discount, due to the closing of the Mt. Pleasant site by DEHC. Bill had an agreement with them that the discounting permitted GRNO to perform R&D with the Thermal Oxidizer.)
5.) Subsequently suffering these problems with the TFO, the company shut down until it was able to relocate to the present site. During this time, according to Bill, over $300,000 was spent re-engineering and streamlining the system so that the TFO would operate properly.
6.) Bill has stated that the process was never really in question as of 1994, but that the limited process heat prevented achieving full capacity. He says the TFO will provide more than enough heat, sufficient to support a Model #600 unit, (600 gal/hr).
7.) Apparently M&K did their due diligence of the process and signed on to provide neccessary engineering expertise. They haven't quit yet, so they must be getting paid, and they must believe the process works. They reported to Bill that they feel the TFO problem is resolved and will work properly.
8.) If this company was merely a scam, I would think that their would be more shenanigans going on. Certainly, there would be much more promotional effort in order to boost the price. Bill's promotional efforts, to this point, have been contradictory to what we normally find in "vaporware" companies out there. If there is anything that has built my confidence, this conservative, "we know what we have" mentality, as well as the frugal use of available cash reserves has created a strong belief structure. (I am basically cynical to a fault, "Hope for the best, but expect the worst".. :0)
In sum, the big boys may indeed be waiting on the sidelines thinking that they have time to get involved. I do know that once the processor is up and running, it will be far more expensive for them to get a seat at the table.
I have looked at the data, and while not an analyst or engineer, I do understand how to read data results when placed next to industry standards.
I have a lot at stake here as well, as I don't take it lightly being this involved in a company, albeit a volunteer. I have many times stated to Bill and Bo that they have to prove this company's technology works, and that much of my confidence is bolstered by THEIR confidence. Both of them have put much effort into developing the technology and bringing awareness of GRNO to the outside world. Both of them, thus, have much as stake. Far more than I do. However, know how much Bill has invested in this company logically dictates that he wouldn't be "putting money down a dry well". He believes and this belief is frankly, quite infectious to those who get to know him.
The stock market is like going to Las Vegas. You will never change that element of its character. However, you have the advantage of being able to hedge your risks by doing you diligence and making your own decisions. I have done mine, and have bet according to my belief level. Everyone here should do the same, knowing what they can afford to risk.
Regards,
Ron |
