Bobby,
From beara to bulla, now back to beara since Thursday. WOW!
Sounding "bearish", goes best with your commentary. Lot of thought in your post. However, I do not think that the sky is falling. (NOT YET)
Run a 20 day weighted envelope with a 3% vertical shift on the DOW Industrial index. Note, the index struggles to stay in this trading channel. I believe it will continue to do this until the specialist do a shake out drop.
I did not run a scan, but just picked these numbers off my chart. (They got to be close.)
DOW Closes
Last consolidation: Market High 08/06/97 8259.31
Consolidation Low 10/27/97 7161.15
Drop 1098.16
This consolidation: Market High 05/13/98 9211.84
Consolidation Low 06/15/98 8627.93
Drop (So For) 583.91
I believe, barring a complete meltdown over night, the DOW will rally back into the channel for the close. The S/MM's are not ready to shake the public out, NOT YET!
As I stated to you Friday. IMO the DOW will trade sideways with a downward bias. The market as measure by the DOW staying in the channel described above, (with the possibility of dips), until the index starts playing tag with its 200 day SMA. Then, IMHO, the market will resume its up trend.
That resumption may well be the last leg up for this Bull. Time will tell.
BWDIK
Regards,
LG
PS: I just don't think the S/MM's are ready for the public to bail. The public does not track the intra day moves and is not aware of the shaking going on. They just see the close each day. The S/MM's are shaking the hell out of day traders. Making a little side money.
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