Bonnie,
I am not a day trader as you and most of your colleagues. Reading
this thread is both educational and entertaining. The following is a
partial view, from the perspective of a long only investor, whom
invest mid to long term. (This is not the only indicator I use.)
Run a 20 day weighted envelope with a 3% vertical shift on the DOW
Industrial index. Note, the index struggles to stay in this trading
channel. I believe it will continue to do this until the specialist
do a shake out drop.
I did not run a scan, but just picked these numbers off my chart.
(They got to be close.)
DOW Closes
Last consolidation:
Market High 08/06/97 8259.31
Consolidation Low 10/27/97 7161.15
Drop 1098.16
This consolidation:
Market High 05/13/98 9211.84
Consolidation Low 06/15/98 8627.93
Drop (So For) 583.91
I believe, barring a complete meltdown over night, the DOW will rally
back into the channel for the close. If not Tuesday then Wednesday.
The S/MM's are not ready to shake the public out, NOT YET!
IMO the DOW will continue to trade sideways with a downward bias. The
market as measure by the DOW will trade in the channel described
above, (with the possibility of dips), until the index starts playing
tag with its 200 day SMA. Then, IMHO, the market will resume its up
trend.
That resumption may well be the last leg up for this Bull. Time will
tell.
BWDIK
Regards,
LG
PS: You may have something regarding Goldman Sachs!
I just don't think the S/MM's are ready for the public to bail. The
public does not track the intra day moves and is not aware of the
shaking going on. They just see the close each day. The S/MM's are
shaking the hell out of day traders. Making a little side money. |
